In Recovery Race, US Looks to Outstrip Europe

By: Nelson D. Schwartz, The New York Times - 12 Jun 2009 - 06:32 AM ET

There was more evidence Thursday that the United States economy might be stabilizing, if not rebounding, even as economic reports in Europe remained gloomy.

But the apparent divergence of fortunes between America and Europe highlighted the different approaches to solving the financial crisis, and why some economists say the more aggressive American strategy may be working better, at least for now.

LEER MÁS

Hypnotized, you'll forget dot-coms, subprimes, the next Great Depression

Twitter-brained investors get 'Terminated'

By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch

ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- In the next "Terminator" sequel, Skynet will "send back" a new, more dangerous "Terminator," not another titanium killing machine but "Twitter Code." And after that, the "Tweet Code" will further limit communications between humanoids, from 140 words to 17 syllables, the length of a Zen koan but without the wisdom.

LEER MAS. www.Marketwatch.com

Poking Holes in a Theory on Markets

For some months now, Jeremy Grantham, a respected market strategist with GMO, an institutional asset management company, has been railing about — of all things — the efficient market hypothesis.

You know what the efficient market hypothesis is, don’t you?

LEER MÁS. POKING HOLES IN A THEORY ON MARKETS - JOE NOCERA

Non-Farm Payrolls Signals Recession is Over

This morning's non-farm payrolls report is eliciting smiles across Wall Street as the hemorrhaging of jobs comes to an end. Only 345k Americans lost their jobs last month, signaling that the recession is over. Although the jobless rate breached 9% for the first time since 1983, hitting a 25 year high of 9.4 percent, there is no question that the labor market has hit a bottom.





We have been seeing improvements across the economy and the much better than expected labor market report only solidifies our overall belief that is the worst is over. Although this is the only type of economic environment where anyone would consider a loss of 345k jobs a good thing. The report is also consistent with the improvements that we have seen in jobless claims and the employment component of service sector ISM. Slowly but surely the U.S. economy is turning higher and the moderation of job losses in May indicates that the momentum is to the upside.

FX 360 - Non-Farm Payrolls Signals Recession is Over

Bernanke on the hill

Calendario Económico 25-29 de mayo de 2009

US Debt Rating Not In Danger For Now, Analysts Believe

Fears about a downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating are premature, but not entirely unwarranted after Britain's outlook was cut to negative by Standard & Poors, analysts told CNBC.

Stocks continued to wobble Friday amid worries about the outlook for the US debt rating. The US market bounced around between positive and negative territory, while Europe moved higher and Asia declined.

"I just see this as perhaps S&P doesn't have the nerve to downgrade the US or to put the US on watch, and so it's doing it to the UK. So this is really a warning shot across the bows of the US, and I think that is big news, actually," Giles Keating, head of research at Credit Suisse, told "Squawk Box Europe."

LEER MAS

Dollar tumbles to multimonth lows as recovery seen

NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar tumbled against the other major currencies Wednesday, touching a fresh low against the pound for the year and a 4-month low against the euro as signs of a resolution to the financial crisis drove investors to riskier investments.

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Volatility Index Below 30 For First Time Since September

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, Wall Street's favorite measure of investor concern, pierced the psychological 30 level Tuesday for the first time in eight months, indicating the perceived need for portfolio insurance is diminishing.

The so-called VIX fell 0.73 percent to 30.02 after notching a session low of 29.95, its lowest level since Sept. 19, 2008.

The index sank to 30.24 on Monday, its lowest close since Sept. 12, 2008.

"After a very volatile period in the final months of 2007 and early 2008, the broader economic outlook has stabilized, which has resulted in lower levels of volatility in the equity market," said Frederic Ruffy, options strategist at Web information site WhatsTrading.com.

LEER MÁS

Jobless Claims Fall in Another Plus for Economy

Chrysler Files for Chapter 11 & Markets Stay Optimistic - Holiday in Europe

-As was widely expected, Chrysler, the US automaker, filed for chapter 11, which helped to eliminate some of the indecisiveness surrounding the problematic sector.
- It is reported that the scheduled May 4th unveiling of the infamous “Stress Test” would be postponed till later in the week as regulators and officials debate the means, manor and tone to use on the release. The reason for this cautious stance is to preserve the stock prices of the banks that will need capital re-injections to “stay afloat”.
- In the UK, Nationwide house price series, following a trend set a few months ago, posted a better-than-expected outcome in April with prices falling only -0.4% hinting that the y/y pace of decline has bottomed out.

U.S. GDP Growth Contracts 6.1 Percent

U.S. GDP growth contracted by 6.1 percent in the first three months of the years,sending the U.S. dollar tumbling against Japanese Yen and rising against higher yielding currencies. The data was much worse than the market's forecast which is part of the reason we are seeing a fresh wave of risk aversion this morning. The sharp drop off came from a decline in private investment and a contraction in both imports and exports. Government spending also fell for the first time 6 quarters.

LEER MAS

Japanese Industrial Production Rises for First Time Since September 2008

(CEP News) - Preliminary Japanese industrial production rose by more than expected in March, marking its first expansion since September 2008.Monthly production rose 1.6% compared to expectations for a 0.8% gain and following the previous month's 9.4% decline.

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World Health Organization Raises Threat Level, Says Containment Not Feasible

(CEP News) - The World Health Organization raised its pandemic risk level to 4 from 3 and said the swine flu virus cannot be contained.The fourth threat level represents "Evidence of increased human-to-human transmission." Level 6 is the highest level on the scale and indicates "efficient & sustained human-to-human transmission," or that a pandemic is taking place.

After the announcement, stock market futures fell to about 0.7% below closing levels.

Mexico Peso Falls on Concern Swine Flu to Deepen Economic Slump

By Valerie Rota. April 27 (Bloomberg) -- Mexico’s peso sank to the lowest in almost three weeks on concern an outbreak of the deadly swine flu will deepen the country’s economic slump.

The flu outbreak, which has claimed as many as 81 lives, may slow dollar flows from tourism and curb consumer spending at restaurants, theaters and other venues where crowds gather, said Gerardo Margolis, a vice president for emerging markets at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto.

UK GDP Falls At Speeds Unseen in Almost Thirty Years in First Quarter

(CEP News) Frankfurt - UK GDP growth surprised to the downside in the first quarter of 2009, suggesting that the current recession will be even deeper than initially expected. On an annualized basis, overall economic activity slid 4.1% in the first quarter, overshadowing both the 3.8% fall expected and Q4's 2.0% decrease.

IMF Revises World Economic Outlook

In the most severe recession since World War II, the global economy is projected to shrink by 1.3 percent in 2009, with a slow recovery expected to take hold next year, according to the IMF’s April World Economic Outlook (WEO).

* World output projected to decline by 1.3 percent in 2009
* Need for sustained policy response to tackle financial sector, support demand
* With strong policies, growth could reemerge in 2010

LEER MAS

UK Budget Statement, Unemployment Rate Highlights an Economy in Distress

The more troubling news came from the UK’s labor report and the delivery of the UK’s annual budget statement. Indeed, the UK’s ILO unemployment rate hit a nearly 12-year high of 6.7 percent in February from 6.5 percent, while jobless claims rose by 73,700 in March, marking the 13th straight increase.

LEER MAS

Canadian Dollar Advances as Bank Outlook Overshadows Rate Cut

By Chris Fournier. April 21 (Bloomberg). Canada’s dollar strengthened from a three-week low as easing concern about the level of capital at U.S. lenders overshadowed the Bank of Canada’s reduction in its key interest rate to a record low.

The currency gained as North American stocks rallied after Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said most U.S. banks have more capital than needed. It fell earlier after the Canadian central bank cut its target rate for overnight bank loans to 0.25 percent, the lowest since the institution was established in 1934.

LEER MAS

U.K. House Asking Prices Increased in April

By Jennifer Ryan. April 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices rose for a third month in April after mortgage availability improved, Rightmove Plc said today.


“It looks like we are now bumping along the bottom of the trough,” Miles Shipside, Rightmove’s commercial director, said in the statement. “For there to be any real sense of optimism that we’re on a sustainable road to recovery, the availability of mortgage finance needs to improve significantly.”

LEER MAS